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2025: New Year, Same Challenges and Opportunities

A year ago, I posited that 2024 could have been the year higher ed finally tested the potential of groundbreaking innovations.   
 
Today, many of the challenges I hoped would spur accelerated innovation have only grown more urgent: enrollment strains, rising tuition and cost of attendance, inconsistent outcomes, AI-enabled disruptions and more. As America ushers in a new administration and Congress, persisting political divisions fuel anxieties for many about what the next few years will bring.  

In 2024, we did witness some promising steps toward change, i.e., institutions experimenting with new approaches to better serve an evolving student body and align education with workforce demands. However, for every sign of progress, the sector continues to grapple with deep-seated constraints. How far have we really come, and where do we go from here?   
 
Below, I reflect on the questions I raised last year and explore what may lie in store for 2025.   

1. Has the accelerated shift from exclusively in-person learning to exclusively online learning continued? 
 
While far more students are enrolled in online learning since the pandemic, exclusively online learning saw its share of total enrollments decreasein 2022–23 from 33% in the previous academic year to 31%, while in-person learning saw its share increase from 30% to 35%. It’s interesting to note, however, that in a survey of institutions offering at least some online learning, 50% said online program enrollment is increasing faster than on-campus enrollment in 2024.  
 
One thing’s for sure: Online learning is here to stay. It’s telling that in that same survey 60% of respondents noted that online classes tend to fill up first, demonstrating strong student demand. Another survey confirms this finding: Gen Z cites flexibility (60%), accessibility (50%), pace of learning (50%) and convenience (45%) as key benefits to the modality.  

2. Have institutionsharnessed the full potential of technologies like AI? 

AI’s real potential rests in its ability to dramatically personalize learning such that every individual has an equal probability of success. But for all its hype, few institutions successfully implemented artificial intelligence tools in 2024, and those that did mostly used it to refine existing practices like using the tech to develop teaching materials and exams rather than leveraging its capacity to fundamentally change education.  
 
If institutions aren’t careful, advances in AI could help fuel their disruption as students increasingly embrace AI as a learning tool and discover they don’t need a formal education to pick up new skills. To avoid becoming a relic of the past, it’s incumbent on faculty and institutions to consider how they might implement tech to fundamentally reimagine how studentsconsume content, engage anyoneto enable learning and effectively attain and demonstrate mastery.   

3. Have advances in AI driven a resurgence in liberal education?  
 
As AI learns to automate knowledge-worker tasks, it will become increasingly important for individuals to develop uniquely human skills like communication and critical reasoning, which are often associated with liberal arts degrees (though these skills can and should be embedded in all credentials).   
 
But if my recent meetings with other university leaders are any indication, I don’t get the sense that higher education is doubling down on these critical, enduring skills. Instead, it appears that technical skills in fields like engineering are being amplified as the skills of the future, driven largely by employer demand. I view this approach as short-sighted, but it may be the case that 2025 will see more employers teaching enduring skills on the job.  

4. Has the value of nondegree pathways been proven and led to a reimagining of the degree? 

Higher education has long been out of reach for students seeking more flexible and affordable options. While the bachelor’s degree will continue to carry value, we’re also betting at WGU that nondegree pathways will increasingly emerge as a viable option for students looking to quickly upskill and reskill.  
 
Encouragingly, the sector has seen significant growth in shorter-term credentials and certificates, with enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs rising by 7% this fall, and companies like Amazon funding industry certifications for roles in tech, healthcare and transportation. This year, I’ll be curious to see whether this growth coincides with more institutions embracing competency-based education, which similarly focuses on equipping students with specific, market-relevant skills rather than rewarding time spent in class. Will we also see an increase in the growth rate of certificates, as talk of skills-based hiring and workforce mismatch heighten?  

5. Have income-driven repayment plans reduced incentives for institutions to control costs?  
 
As the Biden administration winds down, the landscape for student debt relief is ever shifting; one of the most expansive income-driven repayment plans is caught up in court, and the administration recently withdrew plans to enact its mass loan forgiveness plan B. Amid all this chaos it isn’t likely we’ll get a clear picture of the direct impact such forgiveness efforts have on incentives in the education marketplace. However, for all the concern about mounting student debt, tuition and fees at private ranked colleges increased by 2.5% during the 2024–25 academic year while those at public ranked colleges decreased by about 0.6%(adjusted for inflation).   

It’s worth noting that many schools have expanded their aid policies. At the University of Texas at Austin, for instance, tuition aid benefits more than a third of undergraduates. Other institutions should take note. A study spanning 2.5 million students at 65 elite U.S. colleges shows that over the past century students from the lowest 20% of income have consistently made up just 5% of enrollments.  

As we look ahead, the decisions institutions, policymakers, educators and students make will shape how education fulfills its promise as a driver of opportunity and mobility. While change may seem slow, progress is underway; innovations take time to mature and prove their value. I, for one, remain hopeful for what this year will bring and the potential for bold solutions to make opportunity more accessible to all.