We talk often about the importance of meeting adult learners where they are. It’s a great intention but often easier said than done. Adult learners are neither static nor monolithic. Their experiences within the quickening chaos of the labor market induce a range of aspirations and reservations. The more we can fathom these variables, the better we can understand not only where adult learners are but where they are hoping to go and what education-employment pathways they need to get there.
Earlier this month, CAEL and CollegeAPP released a report to help educators and trainers do just that. 65 Million Reasons Why Intent Matters Most: Adding On to the Largest National Survey of Prospective Adult Students is informed by data from a nationwide survey of adults (ages 25–64) throughout the United States between 2019 and 2025. The report’s findings reveal the motivations behind pursuing postsecondary credentials and obstacles that are dissuading learners from acting on them. Based on this analysis, it also includes some timely enrollment strategies. High school graduating cohorts are in decline and projected to remain flat-to-down over the next 15 years. With the dreaded demographic cliff upon us, more institutions are realizing that adult learner success is integral to their own.
As the title of our report suggests, we are building on earlier research. A previous publication, Intent Matters: Avoiding the Enrollment Cliff, covered 150,000 survey responses through March 2022. When we partnered to create a new report, CollegeAPP provided CAEL with access to a complete dataset of more than 300,000 survey responses from adults about their intentions to enroll in postsecondary education. Recent iterations of the survey included expanded questions that complemented the survey’s foundational lines of inquiry, which allowed us to capture snapshots that illuminate changes in legacy data while creating additional reporting dimensions. New elements include in-depth analysis of program preference as well as obstacles and motivations to enroll by gender, race/ethnicity, age, current education level and income.
The good news for educators and trainers is that there is a vast potential cohort of adult learners. More than one quarter (27%) of adults intend to enroll in education or training over the next two years, representing approximately 41.7 million adults within this age range across the country. Extrapolating out, the broader adult population aged 18 and up represents more than 65 million adults with intent to enroll. To put that in perspective, the entire population of enrolled college students in the U.S. is about 19.5 million. It will, however, be critical for higher ed and workforce programs to account for the nuances behind these numbers and what adult learners have identified as the obstacles standing in front of them as they consider how—or whether—to act on these intentions.
Our report found that intent is substantially higher among Black, Hispanic and female respondents. Individuals with lower household incomes, younger adults and those who had completed some college but had not received a degree were also more likely to indicate an interest in enrolling. A clear majority of adults who aspire to enroll point to career- or workforce-related aspirations. Nearly half (43%) said that gaining skills relevant to their current career was their primary motivator. About a quarter (21%) identified a desire to change careers as their main reason for considering enrollment.
About a third (35%) of respondents reported that their intent to enroll was driven by the more general purpose of learning or self-improvement. Even here there is an ostensible workforce component, present within a hybrid motivation grounded in personal and professional needs. For example, adults with a high school degree or less were most likely (49%) to report this motivation, suggesting an interest in pursuing foundational skills and first degrees that enable access to a career path. Learning or self-improvement was equally distributed at both boundaries of the survey’s wage segmentation: 37% of lower- and higher-income adults identified it as their primary driver of intent to enroll.
These findings confirm the need for extended pathways that first and foremost accommodate career aspirations and labor market realities, but educators and trainers must position their programs as part of an integrated continuum of lifelong learning, from remedial education and initial workforce competencies to personal growth, intellectual engagement and self-fulfillment.
Perhaps the most poignant finding: Our report shows that the adult learners most likely to want to enroll are also those most likely to be facing obstacles to those plans. Respondents with lower income levels were more likely (35%) to have enrollment intent than middle- (27%) and higher- (20%) income respondents. Similarly, adults who were unemployed or anticipated a career transition were more likely to express an intent to enroll. Along the spectrum of educational attainment, those with advanced degrees showed the lowest intent to enroll (23%). Respondents who had not completed high school (34%) and those who had completed some college but had not received a degree (33%) indicated the highest intent.
The most likely dampeners of enrollment intentions will come as no surprise to anyone who works with adult learners. By a wide margin, cost was the number one obstacle, cited by 81% of respondents. Time constraints came in second at 67%. Challenges relating to childcare availability and the burdens of prescriptive enrollment procedures were also notable barriers hindering single parents and lower-income adults.
Meeting adult learners where they are is an important first step, but getting them where they aspire to be requires understanding the intent behind those aspirations and what stands in their way. I urge you to read the report in full. It offers several insights and recommendations for tailoring approaches to enrollment and student success according to what we know are the most pressing needs among this diverse and pivotal population of learners.
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